Bitcoin is gaining momentum again, trading above the $115,000 level yesterday after a modest surge. The move comes as a market price for growing expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts at next week’s meeting. Risk assets, including Crypto, remain volatile on a broader background, but are actively responding to the slower monetary policy outlook.
For Bitcoin, the challenge now lies in maintaining a higher level as the Bulls try to push further. The $115K landfill shows strength, but the road ahead is clouded with uncertainty as investors deal with macroeconomic risks and chain risks.
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Adding a perspective, top analyst Axel Adler shared data showing that Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum is currently in the impulse cooling zone. This indicator suggests that while the short-term momentum is softened, the broader upward trend remains. Adler emphasizes that the trend is not broken and frams the current phase as a period of integration rather than a structural reversal.
Bitcoin’s capabilities above $115,000 could prove decisive as volatility is likely to continue to rise all the way to the Fed’s decision. The combination of macrocatalysts and on-chain resilience may define the next important movement of cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Market Drift: Momentum, Liquidity, Demand
According to Adler, the current setup of Bitcoin reflects the lateral stage of action rather than a structural breakdown. He points out that negative 30 days of momentum holds prices in the top range, usually signaling gradual unloading. In other words, the coin is gradually changing its hands without causing a complete reversal of the trend. For proper restarts and accelerated updates, Adler identifies important markers. The momentum for 30 days should not only return to positive territory, but ideally exceed +10%. This confirms a shift towards a strong impulse stage.
Until then, Adler emphasizes that the market remains in a drift mode shaped by thin liquidity. With fewer participants actively trading, prices could continue to rise, primarily due to weak supply and localized buybacks. However, this kind of advancement poses the risk of rapid collapse as a surge in sales pressure can quickly overwhelm shallow orders.
Importantly, Adler emphasizes that actual demand does not appear at cycle highs. Instead, it forms at the moment Bitcoin trades at an obvious discount. Referring to previous work on a short term holder (STH) cost basis for premium/discount, he emphasizes that meaningful influx arrives only if the market provides value. In the mature bull stage, where buyers are cautious about chasing the peak, sustained gatherings rely on these discount entrances as well as speculative momentum.
This perspective highlights the delicate balance of Bitcoin’s current landscape. It is still structurally strong, but is extremely sensitive to fluid shock.
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BTC holds strong beyond demand
Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142 after a strong recovery from the $110,000 zone earlier this month. The 12-hour chart shows that BTC is steadily climbing and is now pushing against key clusters of moving averages. The $114,610 100 SMA has been tested as resistance, but the $112,267 200 SMA has been taken into support, bolstering bullish cases. The $111,987 SMA is also upwards, suggesting a change in short-term momentum in favor of buyers.
Success over $116,000 marks a major step forward for the Bulls, paving the way for potentially retesting $118,000, bringing serious resistance to $123,217. This level remains a major barrier before Bitcoin can try another push towards an all-time high.
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On the downside, immediate support is close to $114,000, followed by a $112,000 zone with 200 SMAs in place. Losing this level will weaken your momentum and lead to another round of sales pressure.
The chart shows that Bitcoin has regained its foothold after recent volatility. If the Bulls are able to surpass the moving average and break through $116,000, then resistance at $123K is a real test, but the next leg could be ongoing.
Dall-E special images, TradingView chart
