Bitcoin (BTC) slipped again under the $120,000 price mark last week, and retreated after hitting a new all-time high of over $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC has fallen by around $115,557, 2.5% over the past 24 hours, about 7% below its peak.
This price movement suggests that assets are currently consolidated after recent gatherings, with market participants carefully watching the next direction move.
Meanwhile, analysts are turning to signal on-chain data on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. One such perspective comes from Pelinaypa, a contributor to Cryptoquant’s quick take platform.
The findings highlight that while profit acquisition begins, current sales levels are below the historical extremes seen at past bull market peaks.
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Long-term holder signal tracking
According to Pelinaypa, LTH analysis uses several metrics to measure the cost-based relationship between Bitcoin price and long-term holders.
A profit and loss band ranging from 150% to 1,000% above the cost base helps you determine when Bitcoin will enter the zone in the high-risk zone on the market. As BTC approaches the +500% band, it often coincides with a growing sales activity and ultimate cycle peak.
The analysis also incorporates expenditure binary indicators that reflect the intensity of LTH sales, which usually presents “bottom alerts” that occur during deep corrections, appearing near the top of the market.
In a review of past cycles, Pelinaypa pointed to 2017 and 2021. There, a slump in the bare market followed by massive long-term holder sales, with the 2022-2023 bottom marking the $15,000-$20,000 range in the $15,000-$20,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin is within a profit band of 150%-350%, leaving potential space for further growth, but as assets approach a higher band, the risk of the market is higher. Analysts said that we can see the green profit bars today, but far below the levels observed at previous cycle peaks.
Bitcoin market outlook: short-term, medium-term, long-term
In summarizing the potential scenario, Perinaipa suggested that Bitcoin could be in scope in the short term, as long-term holders are limited in profit acquisition.
However, if accumulation and wider demand continues, prices can move in the $124,000-$178,000 range, corresponding to the higher profit thresholds of the LTH model.
Regarding the mid-term outlook, which was extended until late 2025, analysts warned that if long-term holder sales are strengthened, like in 2021, Bitcoin could be nearing the top of the cycle. In such a scenario, assets could peak above $150,000 before the next major revision.
Looking forward to 2026, the lack of new bottom alerts suggests that rather than moving into a confirmed bear market, the market is still in the late stages of the ongoing bull cycle.
Special images created with Dall-E, TradingView chart
