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The crypto market slips into the week in a retention pattern, price action grinds sideways, positioning increasingly connected to one catalyst. “This is the only big, big event,” analyst Josh Orshewitz said on August 18th’s Macro Monday Stream. “Everyone sees this, talks about this, analyzes this… What Jay says (Friday)” will swing the expectations of rates and feelings of risk. The symposium will be held in Wyoming from August 21-23, 2025 under the theme of “Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, Macroeconomic Policy.”
Will JPOW shake up the crypto market?
Olszewicz has configured the setup as seasonally and structurally tricky for the crypto. The Comerst, which he considers to be “historically correct for every market,” is not compellingly long, but the base trading is attractive and open profits have been higher with CME futures and options, including Solana. He argued that the mix limits upside-down follow-through in the absence of macro sparks. “It will be difficult to push higher based on what we’ve seen historically,” he said, adding, “When commercials are long, the prices tend to be better.”
Flow emphasizes cross-current. He tallied a net week of “nearly $4 billion” worldwide. This notched the highest weekly flow ever in the US,” but Solana and XRP picked up, saying that Bitcoin intake “appeared modestly” by comparison. However, he warned that even a healthy fund stream would not erase the lack of tactically heavy positioning or clear macro impulses before Powell.
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A change in MicroStrategy’s equity policy, which allows for issuance in markets below the 2.5xMNAV premium, has also been a hot topic for Jackson Hole Chops. Olszewicz said the accumulation of MSTR’s BTC has been “slowly slower,” and Share’s MNAV premium is being actively arbitrated by traders, changing momentum even further when the “short MSTR, long spot (BTC)” underlying coins are not directional. In his view, “If the root is lacking momentum, there is no reason to seek leverage.” This will help explain whether MSTR “goes well” and “goes well” until BTC trends or company accumulation is reaffirmed.
Technically, he described the short term as “a huge, huge nothing burger.” For Bitcoin, he points out the $120,000-122,000 zone as a threshold for clean long setups, flagging the micro-tactics “what’s above $410, and that’s time to go,” admitting that stock momentum is “sliding down faster and faster.” Crossing the crypto stocks, he rarely saw it “scream” for a long time. Miners’ recent strengths are more AI/HPC stories than crypto beta versions. And even the prominent eslinked stocks that have surged since spring are now “record volumes” but show “more neutral” low-timeframe images. “There’s no reason to force a deal when they’re not there,” he said.
How do financial markets respond?
The macro guardrails he sees Powell’s speech are familiar to crypto traders. On the US Dollar Index, he wants to continue “chop neutral” and stay firmly under the daily cloud. “I don’t want this at 99, 100 or more” – The revived DXY “Be very careful of BTC long” rate, 10-year Treasury “may have below 4.25” will be a tailwind, but “all everyone is troubled by over 5%.” He also flagged the dynamics of plumbing: drawdown of reversed lipos to zero and simultaneous refilling of general Treasury accounts – it’s a potential net out flow, but in extreme cases, if liquidity tensions arise, the Fed may tweak it towards policy responses.
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But all the roads return to Powell. As of Tuesday, the broader market is leaning towards rate cuts in September, reflecting the likelihood of a 25 bps move by future implement tools like CME’s FedWatch. “We’ll see 83% for cuts at the next meeting,” Olszewicz said of the market’s starting point, adding, “I expect the market to be very angry if there’s a shift to not cutting,” but the surprise 50 bps would be “probably unlikely” but would be welcomed “in a bullish and happy way.”
For now, Olszewicz is happy to wait. “I’d like to wait to see what this looks like in October. I’m not expecting anything in September,” he said. Crypto’s third quarter seasonality is a headwind and is consistent with the view that meaningful trend signals often reappear in Q4.
Going forward, the chair tone on progressing inflation, labour market cooling and potential for preemptive easing will determine whether this week’s “Nothing Burger” will be the base for the new legs, or whether it will remind you that Macro has the final say to the top of Crypto’s risk cascade. Also, as Jackson Hole explicitly focuses on this year’s labor market, Powell’s framing could do more than the September odds. You can reset how investors think about the overall pathway of their 2026 policy.
At the time of pressing, the total crypto market capitalization was $3.84 trillion.
Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com
